As another contest approaches, much speculation is being made surrounding its eventual outcome. Will another Nemo or Loreen dominate the jury, and subsequently lift the trophy? Will we see the televote favourite win for the first time since 2022?
Background context
Despite variations over the years, Eurovision’s grand final voting has remained largely unchanged since 2009, with a 50/50 split between juries and televote determining the victor. Despite this, discourse has increased surrounding the lack of agreement between both voting parties at recent contests, evidenced through recent televote winners Kaarija and Baby Lasagna finishing as overall runner-ups in the past two editions of the contest.
Current predictions by EurovisionWorld suggest this year to follow a similar pattern to previous years. However, this time Sweden’s 2025 representatives, Finnish band KAJ, lead the charge with their upbeat sauna inspired track “Bara bada bastu”, currently sitting with a 39% chance of winning. Whilst behind Sweden on 16% sits Austria’s JJ with his operatic ballad entitled “Wasted Love”. Additionally, the overall top 10 countries with the best winning chances according to EurovisionWorld are quite evenly split this year; Between upbeat, lighthearted tracks, to slower, mid tempo songs. For example, France’s emotional ballad sitting in 3rd to Finland’s sexually liberating track coming in at 8th.
So this poses some intriguing questions. Can slower songs achieve success within the televote?
Analysis
To carry out this analysis, I have decided to first address five specific examples. As accurately as possible, I have noted the five highest scoring songs fitting into a “slower paced” category of entries. As specific points have not been revealed for the 2013 split voting, entries from this edition could not be considered for this section of the analysis
Beyond this, I will be addressing three additional entries. These being slower paced songs that excelled within the competition despite the betting odds predicting otherwise.
Top 5 Entries with the highest scores:
1: Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois – 376 Points
- Discussion into Jamala’s victory will soon take place, but it must be noted how no later than one year after her victory, a foreign language entry was once again rewarded, and in a colossal regard. Salvador Sobral’s victory was viewed upon immensely for multiple reasons: a gentle ballad, performed purely in Portuguese, not just winning, but winning with such ease. Portugal dominated both the jury and the televote, receiving a stellar 758 points overall, and remaining to this day the record holder for the highest points ever received in a Eurovision grand final. This win also exemplified how past results don’t define a country’s abilities to achieve success, with Portugal never having placed higher than 6th between their 1964 debut and this contest over 50 years later.
2: Il Volo – Grande Amore – 366 Points
- Grande Amore provides yet another example of a non-English song resonating with the public. However, more importantly, it also represents a slower paced song that was better received by the public. Despite standout vocals and a performance exuding class and grandeur, the jury placed the Italian trio outside of the top 5 in favour of more mainstream sounding tracks from the likes of Sweden, Belgium and Latvia, ultimately sealing their 3rd place fate.
3: Kristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess – 337 Points
- Next to discuss is to date the best performing result for Bulgaria, with their mid-tempo ballad “Beautiful Mess” sung by the young but incredibly talented Kristian Kostov. However, this remarkable placement for the, at the time, 17-year-old Kostov does often get eclipsed by Portugal’s groundbreaking result in the same 2017 contest. That being said, since the 2016 voting change where both jury and televotes are revealed in their actual forms, Bulgaria’s overall score of 615 points would have granted them their first win in any other year between 2016-2024 (with the exception of 2022). This year stands out massively within the modern era of Eurovision, given both the highly consistent voting between jurors and televoters alike regarding the top two, and this same consistency applying to two of the slower paced entries within the 2017 lineup.
4: Jamala – 1944 – 323 Points
- This entry provides an intriguing example of yet another ballad able to appeal to the televote, however the first example of a winning ballad since the 50/50 voting split to be performed partly in a language other than English, Crimean Tartar to be exact. Only speculation can be made, whether the engaging performance, flawless vocals, Jamala’s emotion, or an accumulation of all these factors enabled Ukraine to snatch the trophy back in 2016. But what can be noted is how an emotionally raw entry was able to win despite strong competition from bookies favourites Russia and Australia right up until the Grand Final in Stockholm.
5: Conchita Wurst – Rise like a phoenix – 311 Points
- Conchita Wurst, similarly to many of the examples above (all except Salvador Sobral) received a higher quantity of televotes than jury votes for their performance, which adds an interesting dynamic to the discussion on how juries and televoters react to songs of a slower composition. As speculated with Jamala’s victory, was it the attachment to the music that enticed viewers, or potentially the impressiveness that was Wurst’s presence on stage in Copenhagen?
Defying the odds:
1: Yohanna – Is It True? – 173 Points
- As someone who credits this song as being my first favourite as an early Eurovision fan, it’s interesting to see how the odds severely underestimated it’s chances. Roughly one month before the Grand Final in Moscow, betting agency Paddy Power placed Yohanna in 15th with odds of 33/1 to win. However, one could see this as understandable given the calming, understated nature of the entry in an era of the contest regarded for it’s lightheartedness.
2: The Common Linnets – Calm after the storm – 222 Points
- Arguably one of the most clear examples of the odds underestimating a song’s chances was The Netherlands in 2014. Anouk’s “Birds” saw the country finally qualify in 2013 after an eight year non-qualification streak. Despite this, faith in The Common Linnets to improve upon this result was sparse, with The Netherlands sitting outside the top 15 in the odds to win a month before the contest. The country influenced track however defied all odds, receiving 222 points from the televote, and 201 points from the jury, giving The Netherlands their best result since 1975.
3: MichaÅ‚ Szpak – The Colour of life – 222 Points
- Poland’s 2016 result echoes the previous examples regarding the odds underestimating their chances. Similarly to Yohanna, bookies expected a mid table finish for Poland’s MichaÅ‚ Szpak, placing his odds to win at 50/1 according to Oddschecker. However compared to Yohanna and The Common Linnets, Szpak’s difference in televote and jury support was drastic, allowing for a very entertaining moment during the 2016 voting segment. Specifically, Szpak placed 3rd with the televote, receiving 222 points for his emotional ballad. Whilst with the juries he narrowly avoided last place coming 25th with 7 points. To highlight a result such as this helps to tackle assumptions that seemingly Jury friendly entries are consistently geared towards receiving jury support alone, when in fact there is evidence to the contrary.
Summary
As evident within this discussion, from a personal standpoint, I can only deduce from my research and experience as a viewer why these entries, amongst others, have appealed to televoters and juries alike. But, with the increasing discourse surrounding what many call “jury bait” and “televote bait” entries in recent contests, it was enlightening to explore entries that disprove some of these assumptions about who can succeed in a Eurovision lineup.
Soon, we will have a new winner, and a new discussion will inevitably begin. Will the current voting system be doused in controversy, or showered with praise?
Tune into the 2025 contest in Basel to find out!
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